In England, they might call this "squeaky-bum time."
Famously coined by none other than Sir Alex Ferguson himself, that's a witty way of saying that things are getting tight and tense, that nerves might be frayed and that courageous lions are likely to prevail over nervous Nellies.
Major League Soccer was once fairly forgiving where the playoffs were concerned. For a while, eight of 10 clubs made the "second season." Then it was eight of 12.
This year, the percentage of sides afforded playoff grace has shrank further, as just eight of 14 clubs advance into bonus soccer. In a league where accessing the playoffs has traditionally been seen as the absolute minimum performance standard, six clubs will share big slices of the disappointment pie.
Hence, "squeaky-bum time." So, let's take a look at where things stand.
For this week, to develop a bit of clarity in the race, let's make some assumptions: Let's go ahead and assume that New England and Houston will join Columbus in the playoffs. Only Sigi Schmid's Crew have essentially clinched, but it would take the least likely confluence of calamity too see those other two frontrunners lapped.
On the other end, well, sorry all you wonderful Toronto FC fans. Black armbands are the order of the day where your playoff hopes are concerned. It will probably take 36-38 points in the East to gain postseason grace. That means that John Carver's team, currently on 27 points with five matches remaining, needs an implausible burst of success, and probably some help, too.
Strange things do happen, of course. But for now, we'll make the assumption that 10 teams are chasing five spots. Here's a look at each of the teams that could fall either way (listed in order of current points):
Chicago (38 points): The time is "now" for Denis Hamlett's men, with four losses in their last six and leaking goals lately at an alarming rate. Los Angeles visits Toyota Park on Thursday, presenting a national TV stage on which to right the ship and spruce up those playoff ambitions. A win against Bruce Arena's team would all but mathematically secure a berth for the Fire -- assuming they can stabilize things in the back just a bit.
New York Red Bulls (35 points): Likewise, it's time for Juan Carlos Osorio's club to make a stand. Times two, in fact.
The men of the Bull simply can't win on the road; they have collected eight of a possible 39 points away from Giants Stadium this year. So home matches over the next two weekends represent the best shot at securing a spot. Colorado comes calling at Giants Stadium this week, followed by Toronto next week. Four points from the set should be considered the absolute acceptable minimum, because the schedule gets much tougher over the final three dates.
D.C. United (33 points): Tom Soehn's team has struggled since outlasting the Charleston Battery for the U.S. Open Cup crown in early September. United are winless in their last four (going into Wednesday's CONCACAF Champions League match in Honduras), including three MLS matches and a loss at home in Champions League play.
The MLS setbacks have suddenly left United's playoff chances on an uncomfortable dangle. And the RFK woes are complicated big-time by fixture congestion. Whereas most MLS clubs have five competitive matches remaining, United has 10 thanks to the Champions League calendar.
Soehn's travelers were in Los Angeles last weekend, are in Honduras on Wednesday and will be in Dallas on Sunday. That's good on the frequent flier budget, but bad for playoff aspirations.
Chivas USA (33 points): Jesse Marsch returned to the field last week, looking a little thinner but no less determined after the jaw injury that sidelined for a month. That's a great boost for Preki's determined men, who have remained relevant in the playoff chase despite the league's worst rash of injury misfortune.
The key for Chivas, currently second in the West, is in claiming six or so points off the next four contests -- two at home, two on the road. Kansas City visits The Home Depot Center this weekend, with Colorado visiting Carson three Saturdays later.
What Chivas needs is to avoid a final-day must-win scenario. Houston comes calling in the Chivas USA regular season finale, and even if Dominic Kinnear's Dynamo have a playoff place secure (and the South Texans almost certainly will), facing the reserves of the league's deepest team is no picnic.
Kansas City (32 points): Two weeks ago the Wizards were virtually written off for dead.
This week? Well, don't let anybody book up CommunityAmerica Ballpark for those few weeks in November, a.k.a. MLS playoff time.
Two consecutive wins by Curt Onalfo's team have the Wizards positioned just a single point behind D.C. United and just two points behind the Red Bulls. If the Wizards can somehow scratch up a point this weekend at Chivas USA, they'll be in a great position.
Even if the Wizards come and go in sunny SoCal without a point, things might still look promising in Wizard-land. That's because the next three matches will be in the Midwest at the patriotically named CommunityAmerica. Chicago, New England and San Jose wouldn't be anyone's first choice of visitors for three at home. But, heck, for a team written off for dead heading into September, Onalfo's men surely appreciate the opportunity afforded by all that home cooking.
Colorado (31 points): Here's yet another club that stubbornly clawed its way back into the race. The Rapids have collected seven of a possible nine points in their last three under interim manager Gary Smith, whose heavy English accent has apparently resonated inside the Dick's Sporting Goods Park changing room.
There are, however, still miles to go before they can dream of playoff plums; the schedule ahead is probably the toughest among all postseason pursuers. If the Rapids can somehow hang in there, things will set up nicely for a smash-bang closer Oct. 25, as Colorado finishes against bitter rival Real Salt Lake.
Real Salt Lake (31 points): Dropping those points at home last week in a stinging loss to Chivas USA could wind up being calamitous for Jason Kreis' club. The men from Utah have been around since 2005, but have yet to feast on the playoff beast.
Now RSL plays three of its final five on the road, where the men from Utah have managed just one win all year. They have two home matches, including the highly anticipated Oct. 9 debut of the club's beautiful new home in Sandy. While new stadiums do amazing things for clubs in the long run, they don't tend to help the win-loss mark in the short term.
None of the last three teams that opened a stadium in midseason recently -- presumably distracted by all the attached hullabaloo -- could manage a win in the debut contest. That's a fact that can't make the good Utah soccer supporters fell all warm and fuzzy.
FC Dallas (30 points): Oddly enough, the best success so far for manager Schellas Hyndman has come on the road. It is last week's 4-1 confidence-boosting win at Chicago and a previous win in Toronto, not anything that's happened at Pizza Hut Park, which has FC Dallas still thinking "postseason."
But whatever has kept FC Dallas from scooping up more points at home under Hyndman (they have just five of a possible 15 points at Pizza Hut Park under the league's newest full-time boss), they'll have to identify and fix it fast. The North Texans play their next three in Frisco, starting with Sunday's afternoon contest against travel-weary D.C. United.
Los Angeles (29 points): A team that didn't record a victory over 12 matches (until snapping the winless streak Saturday) is suddenly just two points shy of third place in the West. That's a testament to a conference that, excepting Houston, hasn't had a bully to boldly push pass the mediocrity. That has kept Landon Donovan, David Beckham, et al, in the thick of things despite a summer of discontent.
If Bruce Arena can get this side into the postseason, the Galaxy certainly would have earned it. Matches loom at Chicago, Columbus and Houston. With a 2-6-4 road record and a minus-9 goal difference away from home, they'll need something extraordinary to make their first playoff appearance since 2006.
San Jose (29 points): The Earthquakes' ace in the hole is a game in hand. Houston has the same thing, but the Dynamo probably won't need the extra chance to gather up points. (Both teams have played one fewer due to last week's Hurricane Ike-related postponement.)
Frank Yallop's side also has the most favorable schedule ahead of all 10 teams still scrapping for their playoff lives, with matches at Buck Shaw against Real Salt Lake (this weekend), Chivas USA and Toronto FC. If the Earthquakes can keep any semblance of the current form, they should be OK in this thing. That's quite an achievement considering that the Bay Area bunch sat at the bottom of the entire league table two months ago.
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