The New York Red Bulls' stunning upset Sunday of the two-time defending champions wasn't just a shocker on its face. If you drill a little deeper into the hows and whys of past MLS playoff upsets, there's a formula for how these things usually happen.
So even on that matter, the Red Bulls' ambush was a real curveball -- because it didn't align with other first-round upsets.
Every year since 2003, when MLS adopted the current postseason format, at least one of the two top seeds has fallen in the first round.
But these unforeseen thunderbolts are generally down to late-season form. A desperate team finds the higher gear late in league play, battles its way into the second season and then keeps the party going. Riding the momentum, it trumps the higher seed, which had its playoff place secure a month or so before and, perhaps, lifted its foot from the accelerator in the interim.
So we have compiled ample evidence that teams seeded third or fourth can and often do storm the fort, frequently riding a tsunami of confidence and waylaying the higher seed. Heck, we have a great example this year in a No. 3 seed, Real Salt Lake. The men of Utah were undefeated over their last five games, and the energy that helped close out the 2008 season carried Jason Kreis' side to victory in the club's first pass through the playoff breach.
But a first-round victory from a No. 4 is, of course, bigger news. So the Red Bulls' big day in south Texas was particularly shocking since Juan Carlos Osorio's team backed into the postseason, with confidence surely at low ebb.
The Red Bulls claimed victory just once in their final six regular season matches, collecting just four of a possible 18 points. The defense was leaking goals at an alarming rate and the entire enterprise seemed to be unraveling as steady center back Jeff Parke and starting goalkeeper Jon Conway were suspended for 10 games each for use of a banned substance.
Then, facing the two-time defending champs to open the playoffs ... well, you know the rest. Suffice to say, things didn't look good.
MLS playoff history is littered with first-round upsets. But considering Houston's might, the Red Bulls' late-season struggles and the fact that the clincher was a decisive 3-0 KO on the road -- not to mention New York's historical lack of postseason success, a club with just one series win in 13 previous seasons -- this one will be hard to top on the "stunning" scale.
TACTICAL CORNER
• So how did the stunner unfold? It was all about Dane Richards, the dynamic young Jamaican who prowls the right side of the Red Bulls attack.
More specifically, it was about the favorable RBNY matchup that Osorio had identified, as Richards had a big advantage in speed over Dynamo left back Wade Barrett.
Barrett is as steady as they come. But his game is all about positioning and consistency. He's not particularly speedy. In fact, no one along the Houston back line is a burner; Dominic Kinnear's team always gets it done on defense through heady organization and hard work from midfielders who always chase back to support the back line.
But on Sunday at Robertson Stadium, Brad Davis didn't offer as much help on Richards. And early, a minor knee injury probably didn't help Davis' cause. Either way, the Red Bulls offensive plan seemed, just like last week, to focus on exploiting Richards' advantage over Barrett. (The second-year attacker had even mouthed off prior to the series, boasting that he was going to run Barrett "into the ground.")
It worked only OK in the first leg, a 1-1 draw at Giants Stadium. The difference on Sunday was in the balls that went into Richards. Central midfielders Luke Sassano and Sinisa Ubiparipovic, along with right back Chris Leitch, found Richards in spots where he could go at Barrett.
With Davis more interested in getting forward -- as opposed to Dave van den Bergh on the Red Bulls left, who was usually content to help fullback Kevin Goldthwaite deal with Brian Mullan -- Richards' presence was immense. He scored the opener, turned the screw on Houston by setting up Juan Pablo Angel's PK before the break, and then finished the job by arranging John Wolyniec's late clincher.
• Osorio, just like the week before in the 1-1 first-leg tie, stuck with his young midfield. While more experienced vets sat the bench, Osorio adjudged that having younger legs would be the best way to chase and harass in midfield. With the Red Bulls drawing a high defensive line, they compressed the field, leaving Houston attackers Davis, Brian Mullan and Dwayne De Rosario little time and space to supply forwards.
The increasingly desperate Dynamo pressed forward, switching to a 3-5-2 and making three attack-minded subs, finally getting some dangerous balls into the penalty area. But goalkeeper Danny Cepero was exception in shot-stopping on the afternoon, and the Red Bulls back line helped limit the Orange to only a few good chances.
• Columbus had nice, if not spectacular, performances all over the park in Saturday's win against Kansas City. The usual suspects did their part as Robbie Rogers supplied some tantalizing balls from the left, Guillermo Barros Schelotto protected the attack by working balls in and out of tight spaces, Alejandro Moreno worked himself into the ground, Chad Marshall stepped in front of balls in defense, etc.
But holding midfielder Brian Carroll was the one fellow who had a monster of a match. Patrolling centrally along with Brad Evans, this is probably where Columbus enjoyed the biggest advantage, as the Crew arranged a home date on Thursday in the Eastern Conference Championship against Chicago.
With Kansas City's Davy Arnaud, skillful and scrappy, playing so well lately in the middle for the Wizards, that was never a foregone conclusion. But Carroll and Evans were better than Arnaud and Jack Jewsbury, and that's a big reason Columbus was more or less in control the whole way.
• No one can dispute how much Rogers means to Columbus this year. But here's one area where the young winger can definitely still improve: Several times on Saturday he failed to anticipate diagonal passes going into the corner from Evans, Moreno or Schelotto. Once he gets a firmer hand on when to expect those balls, he'll be edging closer to "unstoppable" status for Sigi Schmid's Crew.
• In Carson, Calif., Preki rolled the dice and stuck with Zach Thornton's experience in goal, even though late-season starter Dan Kennedy was eligible once again, back from his one-game red card suspension. Thornton was sharp, too, at no fault on either of RSL's well-taken goals in the 2-2 tie, which sets up Saturday's Western Conference Championship at Rio Tinto. Thornton even denied Movsisyan with a swell save a few minutes before Javier Morales' series clincher.
• All the matches were tightly contested. But the Chivas-Real contest was a black-and-blue bruiser from wire to wire, featuring a weekend-high seven yellow cards and 44 fouls, which was also easily a high for the weekend foursome. In fact, all three other matches landed somewhere in the 20s in the final foul count.
As the game opened up a bit at The Home Depot Center, the offense flowed and the match turned entertaining on both ends for the final hour. But it didn't exactly start out that way. In fact, the teams combined for just one shot in the first 15 minutes. No one registered a shot on goal until the 27th minute as a physical match often bogged down in midfield scraps before that. Sacha Kljestan's 30th-minute penalty kick finally helped crack open the foul-filled stalemate.
• In-form RSL striker Yura Movsisyan always had speed. But now he's boosted the danger with an infusion of confidence, thanks to a fantastic run of recent success. His speed troubled Chivas center backs Shavar Thomas and Jim Curtin all night. That's where the Red-and-White especially missed defensive juggernaut Claudio Suarez. Not that Suarez is any faster. Rather, the "Emperor" understands more about tactical starting position when it comes to dealing with speedy players like Movsisyan.
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