CARSON, Calif. -- We all know what to expect Sunday from Sigi Schmid's Columbus Crew, a club blissfully anchored to the school of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
But who thought we would say this about Juan Carlos Osorio's club: You pretty much know what to expect from the New York Red Bulls on Sunday, too. Given Osorio's notorious tendency to tinker, that's a real shocker.
Of course there's always a chance the Red Bulls' Colombian boss can't conquer the urge to juggle lineups or formations in Sunday's MLS Cup Final at The Home Depot Center. More likely, however, Osorio will go status quo, retaining for one more match the core personnel and tactics that lifted his team from playoff afterthought status.
• Crew capture first MLS Cup
• MLS Cup Notes: Crew win Cup
• Schelotto named MLS Cup MVP
• Hejduk adjusts style in MLS Cup
• Lewis: Right team took Cup
• Davis: Tactics trumped by talent
• Wolyniec rewards Osorio's faith
• Red Bulls waste strong first half
• Cup win sweet for Crew's Moreno
• Red Bulls can't dodge final dagger
• Crew win Cup with team effort
• Crew notebook: Trio hope to return
• Red Bulls notebook: Still proud
MLS Cup Sights & Sounds
Nov. 22 headlines
• Tactical surprises unlikely
• NY native Gaven still growing
• Sidelined Stammler supportive
Nov. 21 headlines
• Carroll is Crew's unsung hero
• Goldthwaite stabilizes Red Bulls
• Crew expect strong support
Nov. 20 headlines
• Backline is Crew's backbone
• Angel key to Red Bulls' success
• LA weather sweet as Crew train
SIGHTS & SOUNDS
So, what should we expect from these playoff survivors tactically on Sunday in sunny Carson, where the late fall heat might keep the game a bit slower than usual? Let's take a look:
New York Red Bulls
Osorio's Red Bulls are in southern California, stalking their first MLS Cup, because they hit upon a winning formula just in the nick of time. It's defend-and-counter soccer, and the Red Bulls are executing it to Swiss timepiece perfection at the moment.
They are defending with six and attacking, usually, with four. Occasionally, one of the two holding midfielders will drift forward or one of the outside backs will stray from defense to provide a cross.
But mostly the Red Bulls four-man back line -- Osorio has settled lately into a fairly straightforward 4-4-2 setup -- is content to stay together, always more comfortable defending in packs. The defenders held a high line in the two early postseason games against Houston. When paired with the busy midfielders, it served to squeeze the field and frequently choked the life out of the Dynamo attack. They moved the line a little further back against Real Salt Lake, aware that the strikers' pace could prove troublesome.
And the Red Bulls' back four, driven lately by outstanding outings from right back Chris Leitch, will have a harder time keeping that high line on Sunday. The field at The Home Depot Center is larger than any of the three New York has performed on in the postseason so far. If the defenders push their line too close to midfield, Crew playmaker Guillermo Barros Schelotto will find Robbie Rogers in the left corner, and the young U.S. attacker will be all kinds of trouble for Leitch.
So, expect to see Osorio's team sit back and keep the Crew attackers in front of them.
"In top level football, as I keep saying to the players, you only have to have one [goal] to win now," Osorio said. He pointed to Chelsea's 2003 team, which found big success through a well-worn pattern of 1-0 wins.
"They have [good] players, and they still played to defend properly, and that means defending with five, six players and attacking with five or four players," Osorio said. "And that's what we tried to do here."
The key to getting that one goal that Osorio so covets is choosing the right moment to pounce. The Red Bulls want to catch Columbus at a numerical disadvantage in the back, and then drive forward aggressively with pace and audacity.
Dane Richards' speed on the right and Dave van den Bergh's experienced eye on the left allows them to bother defenses in different ways. Richards wants to exploit Crew left back Gino Padula in the one-on-one opportunities.
Van den Bergh will surely be more conservative, content to sit back more than Richards, especially as he'll have venturesome Crew right back Frankie Hejduk to deal with. When van den Bergh does get possession, the Dutch flanker wants to look up quickly to spot the moments where striker extraordinaire Juan Pablo Angel is in a favorable position, or when he can switch the ball to Richards on the other side, hoping to exploit the young Jamaican's one-one-one ability.
It is Angel's uncanny ability to make big moments out of little chances that allows the Red Bulls to play this way. There is probably no better striker in MLS in terms of converting opportunities, no scorer more clinical around the opposition goal.
All of this depends on New York getting the first goal. If Columbus can maneuver through the pileup of defenders and defensive-minded midfielders, then the Red Bulls will have to pry itself out of that defensive shell. So far, in three postseason contests, Osorio's men have found the first goal, allowing them to retain that defend-to-the-end mindset.
"We have to defend from the front and we have shown that certainly in the last two games, and it proved to be very rewarding for us," Osorio said. "And hopefully that will continue to be the case."
Columbus Crew
The Crew have been as predictable as they come all year -- but that certainly doesn't mean the Black and Gold are easy to knock off their oh-so-familiar game.
Manager Schmid's 4-4-2 is really more of a 4-4-1-1. Schelotto, the 2008 MLS Most Valuable Player, sits behind striker Alejandro Moreno, probing for weak spots in the defense. Then he'll pick his moments to go link with Robbie Rogers on the left, Eddie Gaven on the right or Brad Evans coming right down the middle. And, of course, he'll always know where to find striker Alejandro Moreno. Moreno's holdup play gets mentioned less than it should, but was among the secrets to the Crew's Supporters' Shield-winning campaign.
Expect to see the Crew fullbacks join the attack, but in different ways. Hejduk will look to get up and down the right wing, providing crosses and forcing the Red Bulls defenders and midfielders to make quick choices about whom to cover, hoping to create confusion that way. On the other side, left back Padula is more of a passing threat, but less of a threat to venture too far forward. That will be especially true on Sunday as Padula will always want to keep Richards in front of him.
Speaking of venturing too far forward, don't expect holding midfielder Brian Carroll to have one of his more adventurous afternoons. Expect to see him stay conservative, ever cognizant of the destructive potential of that Red Bulls' counter attack.
Gaven, on the right side of the midfield, tucks into the center a little more often than Rogers on the other side, providing Carroll and Evans with a hand in the important ball-hawking chores.
"The matchups for us on the wide channels of the field are important, both offensively and defensively," Schmid said. "We've got to keep van den Bergh and Richards contained. But they have to do the same with Rogers and Gaven."
On defense, it's all about three things for the men from Columbus: they have to keep Richards from running at them one-on-one and keep him from squirting in behind the four-man back line; they must snuff out counter-attacking danger and not provide opportunities with freebie giveaways in the middle third, and; they have to deal effectively with Angel -- which ain't easy.
The way the Columbus defense works, MLS Defender of the Year Chad Marshall will look to match up with Angel whenever possible, with fellow center back Danny O'Rourke providing support and looking to sweep up the loose balls around them.
Every moment that O'Rourke gets matched up against Angel -- and you know New York will be looking to do just that -- represents a real moment of danger for the Crew. That happened a few times when Columbus met Chicago in the Eastern Conference Championship, where Brian McBride got matched with the lesser experienced O'Rourke. (O'Rourke was formerly a center midfielder who made the conversion to defense only this year.) McBride turned one such chance into a first-half goal, although the Crew were able to rally past it and move on.
"We always have to have an awareness of Angel because he's such a dangerous forward," Schmid said. "But they have to have an awareness of Guillermo, because he floats into spaces and he's difficult to find at times."
Set pieces:
In big games, free kicks and corner kicks have even more potential than usual to turn the match. When Schelotto is around, multiply that statement by two. That's especially true with Marshall on the prowl, looking for the MLS Cup glory goal off Schelotto's set-piece service.
No one on the field Sunday hits a dead ball with Schelotto's accuracy, a fact not lost on anybody in a Red Bulls kit.
Obviously, Columbus' ability to convert its dead ball opportunities is dangerous on its face. But there's something else that makes all that set-piece ability so particularly troublesome for the Red Bulls.
New York's players are keenly aware of the Schelotto-Marshall combo, and of Schelotto's ability generally to create mayhem in the six-yard box with those curling, fast-dropping missiles. So they'll be extra cautious about fouling Crew attackers in their defensive third. (Although Red Bulls center back Diego Jimenez didn't let any similar concerns bother him in the Western Conference Championship, when he took a couple of big chances with lunges in or near the penalty area.)
That said, the Red Bulls defenders probably will be extra careful about initiating contact in dangerous spots -- and that moment's hesitation can be a Red Bull killer if Rogers or Moreno gets just few feet of additional breathing space.
One last thing: the man most responsible for dealing with those set-piece crosses is Danny Cepero, the Red Bulls' young goalkeeper. He's handled everything with aplomb so far in the postseason. Then again, Cepero has never played in match as big as this one. So look for Columbus to put the pressure on him every way possible.
"I'd be lying if I said there was no pressure, there weren't any nerves," Cepero said. "I think it's just a natural part of the game. The stakes get higher and higher. You feel the pressure."
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