Playoffs in Major League Soccer tend to spill out more unpredictably than perhaps any other U.S. professional sports league.
Every year since 2003, at least one of the two top seeds has fallen right away.
Back in 2004, Columbus was a first-round upset victim. In 2005 the top-seeded San Jose Earthquakes, with just four losses in 32 regular-season matches, were dispatched in a stunner. The next year, Dallas was the unlucky Louie to be dismissed in the first round.
And then in 2007 both top seeds were tossed aside in opening-round upsets. Chicago crunched D.C. United on 3-2 aggregate while Kansas City needed just one goal over two matches to send an injury-bitten Chivas USA home early.
(Oh, and those matchups of Nos. 2 and 3 seeds: well, they are just a free for all. Nothing short of one team refusing to leave the locker room would be much of a surprise.)
So the road to MLS Cup 2008 is pockmarked with peril, even for the lead dogs on the sled. Five matches, starting with a pair this weekend, will decide the Western Conference representative for the 14th MLS championship contest, Nov. 23 at The Home Depot Center outside Los Angeles.
No. 1 Houston Dynamo vs. No. 4 New York Red Bulls
Dominic Kinnear's Houston Dynamo lost just once in its final 17 regular season matches. That kind of fantastic form looks especially salty when held up to the Red Bulls' wobbly stretch of late; Juan Carlos Osorio's team backed into the playoffs despite a nearly fatal loss on the final weekend of regular season play.
That's not the only contrast in this series. Houston's rate of postseason success and bountiful MLS playoff experience is unmatched in the 2008 playoffs. The Dynamo have prevailed in six consecutive postseason encounters with a lineup that has remained largely unaltered throughout. Meanwhile, 15 Red Bulls players have never been in an MLS playoff, including potential starters Andrew Boyens, Danny Cepero, Diego Jimenez, Juan Pietravallo and Jorge Rojas.
And if you think the Dynamo are anything other than fiercely committed to the playoff project, check out the lineup Kinnear set out in Tuesday's CONCACAF Champions League match, a contest Houston had to draw, at least, in order to remain in quarterfinal contention. It was packed with young reserves, who got the job done in a 1-1 tie in El Salvador, preserving the first-choice legs for Saturday's playoff opener in New York.
Playoff checklist: Houston Dynamo
Critical stat: The Dynamo are scoring goals at a rate of nearly two per game lately, with nine goals in five October matches in MLS. That's not bad at all. And it might be sufficient to overwhelm the Red Bulls unless Osorio's men can get it together on defense. They've allowed 18 goals in their last six matches, a frightening clip of three goals a game conceded.
Men of the moment: It's so hard to pick out such a figure on Houston's talent-strewn roster. But target striker Brian Ching has been a massive presence lately with three goals in five MLS matches in October. His 13 goals this season is a career high and landed him fifth among league scoring leaders. His five assists matched a career best.
X-factor: The well-drilled men of Orange understand how to play tight and tidy soccer under Kinnear, who demands execution and attention to detail. And they know how to play for draws when a win isn't in the offing. In 92 regular-season matches under Kinnear since the club moved to Houston before the 2006 season, 32 of those contests have finished in ties. In a home-and-away series, don't be surprised to see the Dynamo draw in New Jersey and then try to finish the job at Robertson Stadium outside downtown Houston, where the Dynamo know exactly how to maneuver around that tight pitch.
Pressure point: Center back Eddie Robinson, a finalist for 2007 Defender of the Year, simply hasn't been the same since coming back from injury late in the summer. The veteran defender has been prone to one or so big mistakes a game lately, and more than one of those has turned into goals. Out of 11 games in the postseason last year, nine were decided by a goal or less ("less" meaning a draw). So, Robinson simply afford make the game-changing mistake.
How they could win it: Despite Robinson's spotty play, Houston hasn't allowed more than one goal in an MLS contest since late August, a span of 10 matches. The offense, driven by attacking midfielder Dwayne De Rosario, target strikers Ching and Nate Jaqua, and service providers like Brian Mullan and Brad Davis, is likely to break through for goals in the series. If the Orange can limit the Red Bulls to a goal a game or less, the series will probably fall to the Texans.
Playoff checklist: New York Red Bulls
Critical stat: Houston doesn't seem to fancy the fake stuff when it comes to the field. The Dynamo are winless (0-2-2) on artificial surfaces this year, with losses at New England and New York.
Man of the moment: Juan Pablo Angel steals most of the headlines, and rightly so most of the time. But the "glue guy" this year, the man who has often held it all together, is Dave van den Bergh. The versatile Dutchman has played all over the field, has performed admirably in all the varied roles and, perhaps most importantly, has turned up with critical goals. Look for him along the left side, probably in midfield, where he'll be matched against workhorse Mullan. Then again, don't be surprised to see van den Bergh turn up in some sort of central role.
X-factor: While it's true that no team, not even Supporters' Shield winner Columbus, strung together a more impressive run of results than Houston in the season's second half, that does come with an asterisk where this series is concerned. Houston's one loss in that time was to the Red Bulls. And it was a quite a stunner, a sound 3-0 Red Bulls win at Giants Stadium, where little went right for the Dynamo. So Osorio's men have that to brace their confidence, at least.
Pressure point: The Red Bulls will have to get it done without two defensive mainstays: goalkeeper Jon Conway and defender Jeff Parke are both serving 10-game suspensions for use of a banned substance. While there's a bit of defensive cover, goalkeeper Danny Cepero is squarely on the spot. He has just two matches of MLS experience. And one of those was in last week's 5-2 loss to Chicago, a result that surely did nothing to prop up the young 'keeper's confidence. Something else that can't be calming for the young 'keeper: Gabriel Cichero or Diego Jimenez (or both) will probably be somewhere in the defense, and both had their struggles over the last month.
How they could win it: Red Bulls manager Juan Carlos Osorio is equal parts, scientist, chess master, master schemer and soccer manager. He thrives on studious attention to matchups, looking to exploit vulnerable spots while hiding and reinforcing his own team's soft areas through tactical arrangement and the careful deployment of personnel. The problem is, Houston has precious few weak spots. Perhaps the Red Bulls can catch De Rosario not transitioning into defensive support quickly enough, or maybe they can pressure Robinson into making another mistake.
No. 2 Chivas USA vs. No. 3 Real Salt Lake
These are big days, indeed for Real Salt Lake. The Utah club has just opened a lovely new facility. And with the champagne barely dry from the christening of Rio Tinto Stadium, RSL clinched its first playoff berth.
Now the men from Utah come to the playoff party with the boost of a five-game unbeaten run.
Ah, good times.
But reality comes crashing in Saturday, as the dream days fade into a home-and-away test against Chivas USA that's sure to be a bugger. It's a Chivas side that's been hardened by injury and driven hard all year by Preki, the Red-and-White managerial problem-solver extraordinaire.
Experience might be the deciding factor as Chivas makes its third consecutive visit, carrying a roster full of big-game vets. Steadfast midfield conductor Jesse Marsch has 35 playoff contests on his resume. Ante Razov has 10 goals and 11 assists in 33 playoff matches. Defender Claudio Suarez doesn't have that kind of MLS playoff experience, but it's safe to say he knows a thing or two about big games. El Emperador (The Emperor) has 178 appearances for Mexico's national team.
Across the field, Nat Borchers and Jamison Olave have formed a robust center back pairing, but they have just four matches of MLS playoff experience between them. And much of the Real roster has about the same.
Playoff checklist: Chivas USA
Critical stat: The Red and White are 8-3-3 over the years against Real Salt Lake.
Man of the moment: This was a breakout season for rising midfielder Sacha Kljestan. His passing, movement and late runs into the penalty area served as constant threats on offense. The third-year pro shared Chivas' team lead in goals (5) and led in assists (7). Plus, he was a key member of the U.S. Olympic team. Now, he can add to a memorable campaign by conjuring something special for the playoffs.
X-factor: The RSL midfield will be up against it, facing one of the league's most balanced foursomes. Marsch and Paulo Nagamura lead the way with guile and grit, while Kljestan mans a more attacking role from the right flank. Preki used Panchito Mendoza, Jonathan Bornstein or even Atiba Harris on the left, depending on the situation and player availability.
Pressure point: Goalkeeper Dan Kennedy's untimely ejection in Chivas USA's last (and meaningless) regular season match has big postseason implications. Backup Zach Thornton has plenty of MLS playoff experience. But at age 35 he's not the same goalkeeper he was for Chicago a few years back. So the pressure is on Preki's defenders to keep the heat off Thornton.
How they could win it: Experience can carry the day if Chivas can maintain the tight performances that have marked Preki's two-year reign. The side lost somewhere between 5-6 starters to injury per match in 2008, depending on whom you count as a first-choice selection. Despite that, Chivas finished second in the West through tight game management, role discipline, effort and timely contributions from guys like Alecko Eskandarian, who had five goals, or rookie Justin Braun, who had four.
Playoff checklist: Real Salt Lake
Critical stat: RSL is in the playoffs thanks to dandy play at home. Jason Kreis' team went 9-1-6 in Utah. But the flip side is pretty ugly; the side found just 10 of a possible 45 points on the road, suffering a rather unlovely minus-13 goal difference as a traveler.
Man of the moment: A 15-assist year would be big news in MLS, and would probably garner plenty of MVP mention. Unfortunately for Javier Morales, big seasons by Guillermo Barros Schelotto and Landon Donovan left the RSL playmaker's season partially obscured. Still, his stylish passing and ability to hold the ball are so important to RSL's attack, especially considering the relative lack of finishing power that hampered Kreis' team regularly in 2008.
X-factor: Kreis admitted that his team played perhaps its worst match of the year when it counted the most. RSL did squeeze out a late equalizer in the 1-1 draw against Colorado, securing the playoff berth. Still, this must be said: the men of Utah didn't manage that situation well. They lacked authority and seemed to be missing some leadership. They had better find a way to take command of the situation. Because going meekly into the playoffs is a recipe for a brief stay.
Pressure point: RSL can probably advance only by asserting themselves at home. They'll have the good support, for sure, but the typical home-field advantage is mitigated somewhat by the newness of the RSL's ground. The club has played at Rio Tinto only twice, winning once and drawing once.
How they could win it: Simply put, by being better around goal. Kreis' team is pretty solid in possession, with good spacing and adequate ball handlers around the park. But they aren't always so crisp inside the opposition 18. Yura Movsisyan has been on a run lately with four goals in five games to close the season, so that provides hope. And this would be a great time for versatile midfielder Kyle Beckerman, unafraid to shoot from the 20-30 yard range, to uncork one of his dandies.
